I am forecasting a record meltback of Arctic Ocean ice area for the summer of 2011. In 2007, a record low of Arctic Ice area was recorded - approximately 3 million sq. km. Before that, a "normal" year would see an minimal ice area of about 5 mil. sq. km. This year, I am forecasting a new record low of near 2 mil. sq. km. will be set.
The significance?
This is significant since ice has a high albedo factor. That is, it reflects most of the suns light and heat back into space. As more and more of the Arctic ocean is ice free, more and more of the sun's heat is absorbed. Thus, the ocean's temperature increases, and less ice is formed in following years. This feedback process has been well underway for the last few decades.
When the Arctic ocean north of Greenland becomes ice free each summer, then the air masses bringing weather to Greenland will be above freezing. In the past, the ocean north of Greenland was ice covered year around. When their is north of Greenland, then the melting of the Greenland Ice Cap will begin in earnest. I believe it will enter what I call "hyper-melt" mode. With the warmer air coming to Greenland for longer summer periods. Then Greenland's ice will melt in earnest. I would not be surprised to see an increase of melting by an order of magnitude.
How Do I know?I regularly go to the Cryosphere Today site maintained by the University of Illinois. This site has satellite images of the Arctic showing the ice coverage. The images of the ice are color coded showing the density of the coverage. Dark purple for complete coverage through light blue for almost no coverage, and black for less than 15% ice. If you look at all previous years for February 17, you will see dark purple over all the Arctic.
Well, for 2/17/2011, you not see dark purple everywhere. You will a lot of light purple and even some red. That means that in the dead of winter that the Arctic ice is not completely covering the ocean. It means that the cold Arctic air is not cold enough to overcome the heat of the Arctic ocean and freeze it over. Therefore, this ice will melt very fast when spring comes.
If you look at the ice area for that date in 2007, you will see that the ice completely covered the ocean. So, 2011 is starting with thinner and less ice coverage than in 2007. So, the 2007 record sea ice minimum should be easily broken.
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