Here it is, end of February, 2011, and the press keeps talking about the Celtics and Heat, as if its a two way race between them for the Eastern Conference crown. This, even though the Heat is 0-5 against Bulls and Celtics, and the Bulls match the Heat in the loss column following their loss to NY.
To me though, its even more of a mystery because the Heat are not a team. They are a collection of parts, and the parts are mismatched. For instance, every championship team needs one or two good rebounders. Who are the rebounders on the Heat? A championship team needs power inside. Where is the Heat inside power? Where is the point guard? Where is the bench.
Now its true, that after you have the All Stars on a team, the other players do not need to be at that level. But, they do need to be at least average. The Heat supporting cast is not even average. They ARE bad. A team may not need to score an A in each of the areas listed above, but they better score a B or C on all of them. An F on any one wont cut it.
You see excellent teams like Boston, LAL, OKC, Dallas, and the Bulls have that balance. In the playoffs, they will design their strategy to take advantage of ANY weakness in the opponent. A weakness in any area is like having a hole in a dike. All the other strength will not prevent the better team from flooding points through the deficiency.
Look at the recent Bulls victory over the Heat. The Bulls out-rebounded the Heat. Do you think that was unusual, or do you think the Bulls will out-rebound the Heat by over 10 boards in every game? How can the Heat win with that? In fact, Boston, LAL, Dallas, and Orlando will do that to them, too. How can anyone who knows anything about Bball think that the Heat have any chance in the post-season?
And that is just looking at rebounding. If we look at power inside, same thing. The centers and PFs of other teams will eat the Heat alive. So, even without a rebounding advantage, the other teams will win.
My playoff prediction -- the Heat will make it past the first round and lose the second series 4-2
Monday, February 28, 2011
Friday, February 25, 2011
Arctic Losing Winter Sea Ice...New and Alarming Trend..
Recent View of Arctic
Cryosphere Today websiteThe Cryosphere Today website is very interesting, I recommend it. The above image was taken from it. What it shows is actually quite disturbing.
Every winter the Arctic sea ice extends and freezes its normal maximum area of about 14 million square kilometers (msk). That is normal for now. If you go back to 1980, the Arctic normally reached a maximum ice are over 16msk. In any case, the area that was frozen over would be completely covered with ice.
The completeness of the ice coverage can be seen by the color given to the ice by the Cryosphere Today website.
Compare the two images from February 24th 2007 and 2011. See the difference? The 2007 image is a solid purple. That means that the Ocean is completely covered with ice -- 100%. That is good. That is to be expected. After all, in 1980, the average ice thickness was 17 ft, and was primarily multi-year ice.
The 2011 image is NOT solid purple. The Arctic is NOT completely covered in ice. The ice concentration is less than 100%. The colors indicate that the concentration is 95%, 90%, and as low as 80%. Water is actually exposed to the air in those places. If you were to be walking there, you could drown.
This is extraordinary. Remember the image for 2007 shows the condition of the Arctic in the year when a summer ice minimum of 3msk was reached. That was a serious meltback that blew away previous records by one million sq. kilometers! When that happened, climatologists rushed to their models to update them. None of the climate models predicted that huge meltback.
But, even that year showed 100% ice coverage the preceeding winter. This winter is different. What does it portend?
First, I think the there should be a huge meltback this summer, easily beating the 2007 record. I would not be surprised to see a summer ice minimum of 2msk.
Secondly, I see a trend towards less and less winter ice. The loss of sea ice area until now has shown a decrease in area at the margins. Now it is losing ice throughout, and it is doing it in WINTER! If the cold Arctic air cannot freeze the ocean in the winter, then that means that Arctic Ocean is becoming to warm to freeze.
Note Hudson Bay. It did not freeze over until January, two months late. But, it did freeze over. Note that its color is a solid purple, so it ishows 100% sea ice concentration. It may be thin ice, but it covers completely. The Arctic is not doing that.
Now another thing that may be happening is wave action. The Arctic is an ocean which means waves. If the ice is not thick enough, then wave action will break it up. So we might be seeing the development of ice and water mixture, a sort of ocean slushy. This may be just as bad as having the ice melted, from an albedo effect. If you notice, broken up ice floating in water, becomes clear and takes on the color of the water. So, ice reflectivity is lost. Sunlight, when it comes in the spring, will start being absorbed before the ice gets fully melted.
As there is less summer ice, more solar energy is absorbed, warming the ocean that much faster.
Now as the ocean warms, then the winter ice concentration should be expected to decline. Now it is at 95% over much of the area. In future years, may it go down to 90%, 80%, and even lower. If this trend continues long enough, shouldn't we expect to see an ice free Arctic in the winter? It might take several hundred years to reach that condition, but unless something happens to reverse the underlying conditions causing the trend, then how can it be avoided?
Impact on Greenland
The importance of Arctic ice loss is on loss of albedo and the warming of the Arctic Ocean. The reason why that is important is that is where the climate of Greenland is determined. When ice is year around to the north of Greenland, then all the weather coming to Greenland is freezing during the entire year. The ice cap is safe.
However, when the Arctic ocean is open water, it is above freezing. Thus, all weather systems going over it to Greenland become above freezing. Greenland melts. The less ice, and the warmer the ocean, the warmer the air, and the faster Greenland melts.
The climatologists foresaw an ice free summer Arctic happening soon. Maybe as soon as 2020. However, none foresee an ice free WINTER Arctic!. This could mean that Greenland's melt season would be year around. Not just for a few months in the summer.
If that happens -- HYPER MELT time. Now we could be talking about accelerating the melting of Greenlands ice cap by orders of magnitude. To me, an increase of melting by 100 times more the current melt rate would not be surprising.
This may seem extreme, but it is just a matter of deduction. Think about it.
Heat Lose to Bulls
Bosh goes 1-18 in loss
The loss of the Heat to the Bulls exposed the weakness of the Heat. With Wade, LeBron, and Bosh most analysts were predicting championships for this team. It is not working out that way. They have a losing record against winning teams. Why is that do you suppose?
First, Bosh is not as good as hyped. Remember, he led the Raptors last year, and they were way ahead of the Bulls in December. But, the Raptors started losing and were eventually caught by the Bulls to make the final playoff spot. So, he couldn't even get his team into the playoffs. That is NOT what you see from elite players. He lacks passion for the game. Notice how losses don't phase him. Jordan, and now DRose, get upset over losses. Their pride is challenged. Not with Bosh.
Next, the Heat have a limited roster. After the big 3 there is a big drop off in talent. Weak teams don't have the ability to take advantage of that. That will be exposed in the playoffs. Good teams will find the weak man on the floor, and funnel their scoring through him. In the playoffs, all 5 on the floor must hold their own defensively or else.
The Heat are weak at the 4 and 5 spots, so they are weak inside at both ends of the floor. LeBron and Wade will not be able to penetrate enough to score consistently inside, despite their athleticism. They are also weak at point guard. This prevents them from being able to get the most out they talent they do have on their roster. Even Wade and LeBron cannot produce consistently at high levels without a quality point guard. When they came together last summer, many felt that the Heat would be a high scoring unstoppable juggernaut. And they may well have been, it they had a high quality point guard like Deron Williams, Rondo, or even DRose. With an elite PG they would have been fearsome.
But, now, they are just the Wade and LeBron show. Whenever they get the ball, it is their individual athleticism operating in isolation that gets them the score. Their effectiveness as a team is limited because they don't have a true team.
The Heat don't have a team with balance or depth. Only 8 players were played in the loss to the Bulls. When Wade or LeBron sit down, there is a huge drop in ability. With the Bulls, Boozer sits and Taj comes in. DRose sits and C J Watson comes in. When Noah sits, Asik or Thomas comes in. At SG, teams either face shooting ace Korver, or defensive ace Brewer. (Please don't ask me why Bogans starts. Some mysteries cannot be understood.)
The subs of the Bulls often extend the lead. When have the Miami subs done that?
This year, the Raptors will likely not make it past the first round. However, next year might be a different story. If they can find some inside and outside help over the summer from the draft or free agency, then 2012 might be a different story.
In conclusion, I do wonder if Wade and LeBron now regret not coming to Chicago. Chicago wanted them, and the Bulls had the cap space to get them. Imagine a starting five of DRose, Wade, LeBron, Taj Gibson, Noah. 4 all stars and a solid smart player. Now THAT would have been awesome, and unbeatable. But, now it will be the Bulls and the Heat fighting each other for the next decade.
The loss of the Heat to the Bulls exposed the weakness of the Heat. With Wade, LeBron, and Bosh most analysts were predicting championships for this team. It is not working out that way. They have a losing record against winning teams. Why is that do you suppose?
First, Bosh is not as good as hyped. Remember, he led the Raptors last year, and they were way ahead of the Bulls in December. But, the Raptors started losing and were eventually caught by the Bulls to make the final playoff spot. So, he couldn't even get his team into the playoffs. That is NOT what you see from elite players. He lacks passion for the game. Notice how losses don't phase him. Jordan, and now DRose, get upset over losses. Their pride is challenged. Not with Bosh.
Next, the Heat have a limited roster. After the big 3 there is a big drop off in talent. Weak teams don't have the ability to take advantage of that. That will be exposed in the playoffs. Good teams will find the weak man on the floor, and funnel their scoring through him. In the playoffs, all 5 on the floor must hold their own defensively or else.
The Heat are weak at the 4 and 5 spots, so they are weak inside at both ends of the floor. LeBron and Wade will not be able to penetrate enough to score consistently inside, despite their athleticism. They are also weak at point guard. This prevents them from being able to get the most out they talent they do have on their roster. Even Wade and LeBron cannot produce consistently at high levels without a quality point guard. When they came together last summer, many felt that the Heat would be a high scoring unstoppable juggernaut. And they may well have been, it they had a high quality point guard like Deron Williams, Rondo, or even DRose. With an elite PG they would have been fearsome.
But, now, they are just the Wade and LeBron show. Whenever they get the ball, it is their individual athleticism operating in isolation that gets them the score. Their effectiveness as a team is limited because they don't have a true team.
The Heat don't have a team with balance or depth. Only 8 players were played in the loss to the Bulls. When Wade or LeBron sit down, there is a huge drop in ability. With the Bulls, Boozer sits and Taj comes in. DRose sits and C J Watson comes in. When Noah sits, Asik or Thomas comes in. At SG, teams either face shooting ace Korver, or defensive ace Brewer. (Please don't ask me why Bogans starts. Some mysteries cannot be understood.)
The subs of the Bulls often extend the lead. When have the Miami subs done that?
This year, the Raptors will likely not make it past the first round. However, next year might be a different story. If they can find some inside and outside help over the summer from the draft or free agency, then 2012 might be a different story.
In conclusion, I do wonder if Wade and LeBron now regret not coming to Chicago. Chicago wanted them, and the Bulls had the cap space to get them. Imagine a starting five of DRose, Wade, LeBron, Taj Gibson, Noah. 4 all stars and a solid smart player. Now THAT would have been awesome, and unbeatable. But, now it will be the Bulls and the Heat fighting each other for the next decade.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Record Melting of Arctic Ice coming in 2011 !!!
I am forecasting a record meltback of Arctic Ocean ice area for the summer of 2011. In 2007, a record low of Arctic Ice area was recorded - approximately 3 million sq. km. Before that, a "normal" year would see an minimal ice area of about 5 mil. sq. km. This year, I am forecasting a new record low of near 2 mil. sq. km. will be set.
The significance?
This is significant since ice has a high albedo factor. That is, it reflects most of the suns light and heat back into space. As more and more of the Arctic ocean is ice free, more and more of the sun's heat is absorbed. Thus, the ocean's temperature increases, and less ice is formed in following years. This feedback process has been well underway for the last few decades.
When the Arctic ocean north of Greenland becomes ice free each summer, then the air masses bringing weather to Greenland will be above freezing. In the past, the ocean north of Greenland was ice covered year around. When their is north of Greenland, then the melting of the Greenland Ice Cap will begin in earnest. I believe it will enter what I call "hyper-melt" mode. With the warmer air coming to Greenland for longer summer periods. Then Greenland's ice will melt in earnest. I would not be surprised to see an increase of melting by an order of magnitude.
How Do I know?I regularly go to the Cryosphere Today site maintained by the University of Illinois. This site has satellite images of the Arctic showing the ice coverage. The images of the ice are color coded showing the density of the coverage. Dark purple for complete coverage through light blue for almost no coverage, and black for less than 15% ice. If you look at all previous years for February 17, you will see dark purple over all the Arctic.
Well, for 2/17/2011, you not see dark purple everywhere. You will a lot of light purple and even some red. That means that in the dead of winter that the Arctic ice is not completely covering the ocean. It means that the cold Arctic air is not cold enough to overcome the heat of the Arctic ocean and freeze it over. Therefore, this ice will melt very fast when spring comes.
If you look at the ice area for that date in 2007, you will see that the ice completely covered the ocean. So, 2011 is starting with thinner and less ice coverage than in 2007. So, the 2007 record sea ice minimum should be easily broken.
The significance?
This is significant since ice has a high albedo factor. That is, it reflects most of the suns light and heat back into space. As more and more of the Arctic ocean is ice free, more and more of the sun's heat is absorbed. Thus, the ocean's temperature increases, and less ice is formed in following years. This feedback process has been well underway for the last few decades.
When the Arctic ocean north of Greenland becomes ice free each summer, then the air masses bringing weather to Greenland will be above freezing. In the past, the ocean north of Greenland was ice covered year around. When their is north of Greenland, then the melting of the Greenland Ice Cap will begin in earnest. I believe it will enter what I call "hyper-melt" mode. With the warmer air coming to Greenland for longer summer periods. Then Greenland's ice will melt in earnest. I would not be surprised to see an increase of melting by an order of magnitude.
How Do I know?I regularly go to the Cryosphere Today site maintained by the University of Illinois. This site has satellite images of the Arctic showing the ice coverage. The images of the ice are color coded showing the density of the coverage. Dark purple for complete coverage through light blue for almost no coverage, and black for less than 15% ice. If you look at all previous years for February 17, you will see dark purple over all the Arctic.
Well, for 2/17/2011, you not see dark purple everywhere. You will a lot of light purple and even some red. That means that in the dead of winter that the Arctic ice is not completely covering the ocean. It means that the cold Arctic air is not cold enough to overcome the heat of the Arctic ocean and freeze it over. Therefore, this ice will melt very fast when spring comes.
If you look at the ice area for that date in 2007, you will see that the ice completely covered the ocean. So, 2011 is starting with thinner and less ice coverage than in 2007. So, the 2007 record sea ice minimum should be easily broken.
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